Spring practices are in the books and fall camps will be here before you know it so that means getting an early jump on the 2006 NCAA football season. Knowing the teams now will save you time in August and Matt Fargo is here to help you get a grasp of what to expect this upcoming year. We go from worst to first in this 2006 College Football Preview.
#46 - Fresno St. Bulldogs 8-5 SU; 7-5 ATS
Fargo's Take The Bulldogs stumbled at the end of last year by losing their final four games, turning a possible incredible season into a very average one. A big win over Boise St. improved Fresno St. to 8-1 but a heartbreaking loss the following week at USC deflated the team. Now the Bulldogs have to reload, especially on offense if they are to have a shot at winning the WAC. Gone is four-year starting quarterback Paul Pinegar as well as the top three rushers from last season. There is experience all over the place as 16 starters are back but the six guys that were lost were all integral players in the success of the program. While the offense was able to carry the load the last two years, it will be up to the defense to take over that job in 2006. The schedule does the Bulldogs no favors this year so getting out of the gate strong is going to be difficult. Fresno St. should be fine by the time it faces Boise St. in November but until then, things could be dicey.
Returning Starters on Offense - 8 Fresno St. finished 6th in the country in scoring offense last season, averaging 37.8 ppg and that was actually a decrease from 2004. The Bulldogs will be hard pressed to match that sort of output as the quarterback situation remains unsettled. The leading candidate to take over for Pinegar is sophomore Tom Brandstater but no signal caller pulled away in the spring. The loss of Wendell Mathis is just as huge but the return of running back Dwayne Wright, the leading rusher in 2003 who missed all of 2005 and most of 2004 is a big plus. He looks healthy once again and he will be running behind a line that returns four starters including All-WAC center Kyle Young. Whoever takes the signal caller job will have a veteran group of receivers to throw to led by Paul Williams.
Returning Starters on Defense - 8 The defense was solid for most of 2005 but over the final four games, the unit allowed a whopping 39.8 ppg and was run over by the opposition. Eight seniors and three juniors are in the starting lineup this season so that veteran leadership is going to have to be on display early in order to give the offense time to find cohesion. Losing defensive end Garrett McIntyre is the big blow to the unit but the line should be able to rebound with three other starters coming back. The secondary was strong but cornerback Richard Marshall and free safety Tyrone Culver have departed and those two losses will be tough to overcome. There is not a lot of depth along the entire defense so if injuries come into play, the Bulldogs could be hurting.
Schedule Fresno St. is never shy about scheduling tough non-conference opponents and this year is no exception. After starting the season with a WAC home game against an excellent Nevada team, the Bulldogs host Oregon and Colorado St. with a game at Washington sandwiched in-between those two. The final out of conference game is at LSU at the end of October. The WAC schedule is never too daunting but there are some challenges. The aforementioned game against Nevada and a game against Hawaii are the two toughest home contests while back-to-back road games at Louisiana Tech and San Jose St. to close out the season are not as easy as in the past. The big game however is a trip to Boise St. which could decide the champion. The Broncos are favored to win the WAC and want revenge from last season's 20-point defeat.
You can bet on... Momentum carries a long way in college football and Fresno St. has none heading into 2006. Four losses to end the season doesn't bring in a lot of confidence into the current campaign but head coach Pat Hill is one of the best motivators around and he will have his team ready to play. The Bulldogs, despite playing difficult out of conference teams, are 19-7 ATS over the last seven years against non-conference foes. They will be tested once again and one game to look at is the game against Oregon. The Bulldogs felt they were robbed in Eugene in a three-point loss last season as they were penalized 16 times for 155 yards. A lot of those penalties were phantom calls so Fresno St. wants nothing more than to return the favor.
About the Author
Matt Fargo is a documented member of the Professional Handicappers League. Read all of his articles at www.procappers.com/Matt_Fargo.htm