I'll be adding a few segments from my 2006 NFL Preseason GamePlan during the month of August. Let's kick things off with early preseason handicapping:
Approach to Week 1 of the Preseason
Preseason will give us quite a few opportunities but there's more value and predictability after Week 1 is done. As a general rule it's smarter to start slowly. In Week 1 there are more unknowns and motivations are harder to pin down. I'm a firm believer that to win a good percentage of preseason picks we need to find those plays that offer MULTIPLE edges or one HUGE factor that the game should center around. The games with multiple edges are more frequent in weeks 2, 3, and 4 because of the past week's results also factoring in for both teams.
While every year is different, I consciously want to be very selective in Week 1. If the play has alot going for it, no problem with pulling the trigger early on and there are always some great spots. But if the edge is small or there are many unknowns, it's better to pass. Instead of adding 5 or 6 Week 1 games, I'm inclined to look for the best 2 or 3. Then look to go after the sportbooks even harder in weeks 2-4. So if you're sure you have things working on your side in Week 1, fire away. Otherwise be disciplined and save your money for more predictable opportunities in the upcoming weeks.
Rookie NFL Coaches
I'll be posting more about preseason coaching trends down the road but rookie NFL coaches are always worth considering along with other important factors. For those who haven't been following all of the moves, here's the rookie class for 2006 and a few extra details:
Rod Marinelli (Detroit Lions) Rookie head coach. Marinelli was the D-line coach of Tampa in 2005. Of interest, Mike Martz is Detroit's new offensive coordinator.
Mike McCarthy (Green Bay Packers) Rookie head coach. McCarthy was the Offensive Coordinator for San Francisco in 2005.
Gary Kubiak (Houston Texans) Rookie head coach. Kubiak was Denver's Offensive Coordinator in 2005.
Brad Childress (Minnesota Vikings) Rookie head coach. Offensive Coordinator of the Eagles in 2005.
Sean Payton (New Orleans) Rookie head coach. Offensive Coordinator of the Dallas Cowboys in 2005. Will he be similar to Parcells in approach?
Eric Mangini (NY Jets) Rookie head coach. New England's Defensive Coordinator in 2005.
Scott Lineham (St. Louis Rams) Rookie head coach. Offensive Coordinator of the Miami Dolphins in 2005.
About the Author Kevin Kavitch is a documented member of the Professional Handicappers League. Read all of his articles at www.procappers.com/Kevin_Kavitch.htm
