Spring practices are in the books and fall camps will be here before you know it so that means getting an early jump on the 2006 NCAA football season. Knowing the teams now will save you time in August and Matt Fargo is here to help you get a grasp of what to expect this upcoming year. We go from worst to first in this 2006 College Football Preview.
#48 - Central Florida Golden Knights 8-5 SU; 8-5 ATS
Fargo's Take Central Florida had the biggest turnaround in the country last season, going from zero wins in 2004 to eight last season. With 17 starters back and a relatively tame schedule, things could possibly be even better in 2006. But let's not go there just yet. The Golden Knights defeated only one team with a winning record last year, won seven of their eight games by 10 points or less, did not get hit with an big injuries and finished 12th in the country in turnover margin. Basically, everything went their way and that likely is not going to happen again. This is a very talented team with a proven head coach in George O'Leary but everything has to fall into place again. 10 of the 22 starters are sophomores, nine of which were starters as freshmen, so give this team another year or two and then we will see what it is capable of. A winning record is likely but a losing record would not be surprising given all of the breaks the Golden Knights received last season.
Returning Starters on Offense - 8 The offense was just good enough to win games a season ago and while that could be considered excellent, it really isn't considering Central Florida was able to sneak up on most teams. The Golden Knights increased their point production by close to 13 ppg from the previous season so that can't be taken away and they should be applauded for that. The leader was quarterback Steven Moffett who shook off a dreadful 2004 campaign and shined last season. All five starters are back on the offensive line meaning the rushing game that averaged 167.1 ypg looks to be in fine shape once again. Leading receiver Brandon Marshall needs to be replaced while the best returnee, Mike Walker, is coming back slowly after a knee injury last season. The offense should be potent once again but there is not going to be a significant improvement.
Returning Starters on Defense - 9 Central Florida struggled on defense last season as it finished 96th in the country in total defense and 76th in scoring defense. All but two starters return in 2006 but that can be a catch-22 considering how average it was and how young it still is. The back seven is made up of six sophomores including the entire secondary that finished 81st in passing defense. The unit allowed just 4.2 ppg less than the previous year and while giving up fewer yards on the ground, it did allow bigger yards per carry average. I make it sound as though the defense has no chance but that isn't the case. A year of experience for all of these youngsters goes a long way and there is a very good possibility that the unit could improve significantly. There are just too many questions for that to be predicted and while the defense won't be worse, it won't be a whole lot better either.
Schedule The schedule is very forgiving once again and that could be the one thing that gets the Golden Knights back into the postseason. The non-conference schedule starts off with a home game against Villanova but it does get tougher after that. They play host to South Florida and Pittsburgh, two games that could go either way, and they must travel to Florida in the second game of the year. The C-USA slate is very soft with the toughest home game coming against Southern Mississippi so all four of those conference games can be won. The most difficult road game is at West Division Houston while the other three come against Marshall, Memphis and Tulane, teams all ranked below them. Notice that the two top teams in the West, UTEP and Tulsa, are no where to be found on the schedule.
You can bet on... The Golden Knights are ranked as high as they are due to the amount of starters coming back coupled with the relatively easy schedule. A few bad breaks and Central Florida could be in for a very average season. O'Leary did it once and he is capable of doing it again however. The Golden Knights are just 3-9 ATS in non-conference action over the last four seasons and those three wins came against Penn St., West Virginia and South Carolina, games in which they were getting at least two touchdowns. They will be getting a lot in Florida but the home games against South Florida and Pittsburgh will be close to even. Central Florida is also 0-5 ATS as a road chalk over the last three years with the game at Marshall likely falling into that category.
About the Author Matt Fargo is a documented member of the Professional Handicappers League. Read all of his articles at www.procappers.com/Matt_Fargo.htm
