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As I've mentioned before, I've found that preseason handicapping requires a certain mindset. Here's a few things to keep in mind now that week 1 is in the rear-view mirror:

KEY CONCEPT

Based on the past 5 years, situations and motivations have become more important compared to personnel and matchups. Giving those factors the appropriate weight is very important. One HUGE indicator tends to overcome multiple small ones favoring the other team. Often this means the situation a team is in. If a team just got hammered in their previous game, all the small factors that might appear to be against them can get washed away by their improved focus and coaching motivations to produce a better result.

However, games with multiple strong indicators lining up in our favor have hit for the highest winning percentages. This is the most important concept to keep in mind. If the game has too many conflicting edges or unknowns, it's best to simply pass and wait for a better game. Making educated guesses should never be a part of preseason wagering. On the other side, when the planets line up on a play, we shouldn't be afraid to unload. The key is being disciplined and selective. That mindset has helped me to produce a perfect 6-0 result with my ProCapper Preseason Feature Plays.

WEEKS 2 thru 4

This is where we want to take most of our shots. Every season is different because of off-season changes (players & coaches) and some years we get a better mix of teams in negative situations facing teams in positive situations. Dogs tend to be far more important to look at starting with Week 2. We often get better spreads with teams that were just beaten badly or looked sloppy and that's ideal. These are the teams that are historically in a positive situation to play well and the coaches also increase their motivation to win. The opposite can be said for coaches and players that are coming off comfortable wins. I give the coaching intentions alot of weight after a big win. Evaluations and experimenting are more likely and the pressure to win is reduced. Remember that all big preseason dogs will look ugly but these are the games that we can cash in on.

About the Author

Kevin Kavitch is a documented member of the Professional Handicappers League. Read all of his articles at www.procappers.com/Kevin_Kavitch.htm