IEEE Spectrum, the Magazine for Technology Insiders (http://www.spectrum.ieee.org), today released a three-part report, "Technology and Terrorism," examining worst-case scenarios and vulnerabilities, tech-based anti-terror initiatives, and the questionable merits of spending huge sums on counterterrorism.
Almost five years following 9/11's devastating wake-up call, think tanks and technology experts are designing ways to both anticipate and combat terrorism; these intriguing methods may prove invaluable. The first part of the IEEE Spectrum report unveils one of the most inventive approaches--computer simulation that models the minds, behavior, and networks of terrorists. Somewhat like a video game, it predicts how combatants from another culture will react to a specific situation or action. In fact, according to IEEE Spectrum's senior editor Harry Goldstein, "Circumstantial evidence suggests that the software helped guide the rapid series of raids on Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's network in Iraq immediately after he was killed this past June."
The second report is a series of nine realistic terrorist-attack scenarios, based on roundtable discussions by Stanford University and counterterrorism specialists, that includes toxic train wrecks, dirty bombs, utility and refinery sabotaging, and Academy Awards and shopping mall attacks. Each is evaluated as to difficulty to execute, likelihood of occurrence, anticipated damage, and technological preparedness. "Agro-armageddon," or contamination of livestock, for example, is quite easily accomplished, has a high degree of likelihood, could cause major loss in livestock and an economic recession, but could be prevented by widespread inoculation against disease.
Although other cautionary tales within this report sometimes bode a more ominous outcome, "Superior technology is one of the many advantages developed societies have over terrorists, insurgents, and militiamen, and it will undoubtedly be used to track them, spy on them, and fight with them."
The report closes with an essay by Charles Perrow, professor emeritus at Yale University, arguing the logic of allocating huge amounts to counterterrorism while ignoring adequate funding for the enormous costs of natural disasters and industrial accidents.
Excerpts from roundtable discussions by think-tank and counterterrorism experts are available on podcasts, and can be downloaded at http://www.spectrum.ieee.org.
